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That Whole Latino Vote Thing : A look at the Numeros

9:54 am By Maegan La Mala · Immigration| US Presidential Race 2008

6 Nov 2008

VoteHere.jpgI don’t think any voting bloc or assumed voting bloc was more hyped up than the Latino vote. Maybe it’s the fact that I am and have been surrounded by politically engaged Latinos that leaves me a little skeptical. When I say politically engaged, I am not just talking about voting, as many, including myself are skeptical of the power of electoral politics to bring on the change that everyone is so excited about happening.

Let’s look at some of the numbers and how people are reading them.

Hispanics voted for Democrats Barack Obama and Joe Biden over Republicans John McCain and Sarah Palin by a margin of more than two-to-one in the 2008 presidential election, 66% versus 32%, according to a new report from the Pew Hispanic Center, a project of the Pew Research Center.

Pero did more Latinos vote? Did all the get out the vote efforts work? Depends on who you ask. According to the Pew Research Center the Latino vote was not more than in the past.

The report finds that 8% of the electorate was Latino, unchanged from 2004.


America’s Voice
works out the numbers a little differently.

The Latino vote comprised at least 8% of the overall electorate, according to exit polling. This works out to approximately 10.5 million voters, given the expected 130 million votes cast. This figure represents a jump of 3 million voters since 2004, when 7.6 million Latinos cast ballots, and is almost double the Latino turnout of 2000.

In the NYC Spanish language newspaper HOY, The National Council of la Raza is touting a 32 percent increase in the Latino electorate since the 2004 election.

What all agree on, it seems, is that the Latino vote played an important role in swing states, making the Latino vote an important swing vote.

o CO: The Latino vote in CO grew from 8% of the state’s electorate in 2004 to 17% in 2008. Obama gained support of 73% of CO Latinos – key to his 53-46% victory in the state, as well as the Udall Senate victory.
o FL: The Latino vote’s shift towards the Democrats was essential in Obama’s win. FL Latinos broke 56-44% for Bush in 2004 and 57-42% for Obama in 2008.
o NM: Latinos comprised 41% of the NM 2008 electorate – a jump from their 32% in 2004. Latinos in NM supported Obama 69-30% — a big jump from 56-44% support for Kerry. NM Latinos’ trend towards Democrats played a huge role in the Presidential race and in handing the open Senate seat and two Congressional races (NM-1 and NM-2) to the Democrats.
o NV: Latinos in NV supported Kerry 60-39% in 2004 and Obama 78-20% in 2008. Latinos in NV also increased from 10% of electorate in ‘04 to 16% in 2008, and played a key role in handing the NV-3 Congressional seat to the Democrats.

And while both candidates failed in adequately addressing the issue of immigration, the immigration issue played a key role for Latino voters, especially in state elections.

Goodbye to Senator Elizabeth Dole of North Carolina who started her campaign this time with a television ad with local sheriffs enforcing immigration laws. Her storied political career may have come to an end.

Lou Barletta, the mayor of Hazleton, PA who was known for his support for a tough anti-immigrant ordinance, lost in his race for Congress in Pennsylvania. This may have been the high point of his political career.

Voters defeated leading anti-immigrant crusaders such as Marilyn Musgrave (CO-4), Thelma Drake (VA-02), Lou Barletta (running for Rep. Kanjorski’s seat in PA-11), and possibly Virgil Goode (VA-5) (race too close to call at press time), and supported candidates with practical and common sense approaches for fixing our nation’s broken immigration system like Dina Titus (taking Rep. Porter’s seat in NV-3), Bill Foster (IL-14), Jim Himes (taking Rep. Shays’ seat in CT-4), Rep. Giffords (AZ-8), and many others. In the Senate, new pro-reform senators include Mark Warner in VA, Jeanne Shaheen in NH, Mark Udall in CO, Kay Hagan in NC, and Tom Udall in NM.

What’s next for Latinos, voters or not? Ensuring that at the top of the agenda is ending the terrorism of ICE and that U.S. policy towards Latin America moves away from colonial paternalism. A tall order that not even an Obama presidency may be able to fill.

Via / Crooks and Liars, America’s Voice, Standing Firm

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VivirLatino is a daily publication published by 2 Mujeres Media, dedicated to featuring all the latest politics, culture, entertainment of interest to the diverse and influential Latino and Latina community in the U.S.

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