Many Americans are pessimistic about the economic outlook for the coming year, according to an October 2008 consumer survey conducted by Market Probe International, and more U.S. citizens favor Barack Obama based on their perception and expectation that he will be more likely to improve the economy than John McCain. Not only a large majority of Democrats (72%) have positive expectations of Obama; so do many Independents (a plurality of 39%) and a startling number of Republicans (15%).

Currently, 42% of Americans expect the economy to worsen over the next 12 months, while 39% expect it to improve and 19% expect it to stay the same. 44% of respondents expect the economy would improve if Obama won, while only 32% envision the same outcome under a John McCain presidency.

Market Probe International surveyed 1,000 registered voters, as part of a major international study of 10,392 respondents from representative population samples in 21 countries by members of the international market research network GlobalNR. The Market Probe International survey was designed to gauge current sentiment among Americans on prevalent issues, including the global economic crisis, the role of government in the economy, the upcoming U.S. Presidential election and perceptions of the U.S. around the world. In the random and representative sample of 500 men and 500 women, self-declared Democrats comprised 35% of the sample, Republicans 29%, and Independents 23%; the rest declined to declare party affiliation.

“The opinion polls favored Barack Obama for some time, but perhaps more importantly, significant proportions of non-Democrats expect Obama to win, and think he’ll be more likely than John McCain to improve the economy,” says Alan Appelbaum, President of Market Probe International and Board member of GlobalNR. “The public had been divided by ideological and cultural issues in past elections, but these divisions have been sidelined by the current economic crisis and government intervention in the market. Americans want, above all, to make it through the downturn.”

The survey asked which party nominee respondents preferred; 51% preferred Obama, 39% favored McCain and the rest had no preference. A clear majority (62%) of Americans overall expect Obama to win the Presidential election, while just 20% expect John McCain to win and 18% don’t know. Despite Obama’s warnings to his party not to become overconfident, 86% of self-declared Democrats are expecting an Obama win. In fact, even among self-declared Republicans, only 42% see a McCain victory, while 35% expect Obama and 23% don’t know.

At a time when the economy is the primary concern for Americans, Obama enjoys higher expectations from the registered Democrats polled (72% of them believe the economy would improve under his administration, 18% say it will stay the same, and 10% think it will get worse) than McCain receives from registered Republicans (59% say he can improve the economy, 29% think nothing will change, 12% say the situation will worsen). Voters also predict that Obama can cultivate improvements in other areas.

Further highlights of the survey results:

Candidates’ Potential Impact on the Environment:
If Obama were elected, Americans expect the environment would improve (42% improve, 48% stay the same, 11% worsen). Predictably, Democrats have higher expectations (64% improve, 32% stay the same, 4% worsen) than Republicans. Even among Republicans, expectations for the environment under an Obama presidency balance out neutral, not positive or negative (18% improve, 63% stay the same, 18% worsen). The opposite is expected with a John McCain win. Overall, those surveyed expect that environmental conditions will decline under a McCain administration; the only groups with a balance of opinion expecting improvement are Republicans (22% improve, 70% stay the same, 9% worsen) and Americans who would prefer McCain to win (29% improve, 66% stay the same, 5% worsen).

Candidates’ Influence on the Perception of America’s Image Abroad:
America’s image in the world has waned in recent years. If John McCain were to win, overall Americans expect the image of America in the world to worsen (22% improve, 41% stay the same, 37% worsen). Specifically, a majority of Democrats (57%) and a plurality of Independents (19% improve, 43% stay the same, 38% worsen) expect the American image to weaken. Republicans expect the image of our country to improve (42% improve, 45% stay the same, 13% worsen). By sharp contrast, if Barack Obama wins, many Americans feel America’s image around the world will advance (49% improve, 28% stay the same, 23% worsen). This improvement is expected across age and income groups as well as across the political spectrum: improvement is expected by a majority of Democrats (74%) and Independents (52%). Only Republicans expect the perception of America to worsen under an Obama administration (19% improve, 37% stay the same, 45% worsen).

Media’s Influence on Voters:
According to survey respondents, the media’s ongoing examination of the respective party nominees has greatly influenced voters: 61.1% of Americans rate themselves very or somewhat influenced by one-on-one interviews they have seen with candidates, and 53% cite political debates as influential, far more so than other media coverage (26%), opinions of friends, peers and colleagues (26%) or newspaper editorials (20%).

Summary

“The findings of the global pulse poll demonstrate that the U.S. Presidential election is being closely watched around the world. Interestingly the survey shows that the rest of the world has a clear expectation as well as preference for an Obama victory—-to an even stronger degree than among registered voters in the US. It would appear that the McCain team faces an uphill battle in trying to convince Americans and citizens of the world that he can effect positive change more so than Obama. Thus the McCain campaign needs to consider focusing on addressing the key issues of the day and demonstrating that his proposed programs will bring about improvement more quickly and/or more effectively than Obama.” said Alan Appelbaum, President of Market Probe International and Board member of GlobalNR. “With concerns about an economic downturn spiraling, global companies as well as governments have the opportunity along with the significant challenge to demonstrate leadership and to create growth that will bring about and sustain prosperity.”

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Notes to Editors
The Market Probe International survey included 10,392 respondents from representative population samples in 21 countries: Austria, China, Denmark, Finland, France, Georgia, Germany, India, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Netherlands, Norway, Russia, Spain, South Korea, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, U.K. and U.S.

Fact sheets about other countries’ responses are available upon request.

About the Survey
GlobalNR, an independent global research consortium, conducted the survey. All aspects of the research were carried out in accordance with procedures established by the American Marketing Association, the Market Research Association and ESOMAR. The same survey with minor variations was conducted in 21 participating countries.

About Market Probe International
Market Probe International is a leader in providing research to global marketing decision makers. Services include market research consulting, survey data gathering, tabulations, written and statistical analysis.