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Tue08Aug2006

Fidel Castro : In or Out?

11:30 H | Topics: Controversia - Cuba - Politics

fidel_castro.jpgWhile the street parties in Miami are slowing down as people figure out the Fidel Castro isn't dead, speculation remains as to when and even if the bearded one will take back his place as the leader of Cuba. Even the official word out of Cuba is mixed. Cuban Vice President Carlos Lage said that Fidel would be back at work "in weeks". Roberto Fernandez Retamar, a member of Cuba's Council of State says it's gonna be a few months before Fidel gets back to official presidential work. It's not clear if U.S. analysts are basing their info on super secret spies or are just being optimistic but "experts" are saying Fidel is never coming back. Jaime Suchlicki, director of the Institute of Cuban and Cuban-American Studies in Miami said:

Succession has taken place. Fidel Castro is not returning, and if he is returning, it will be in a ceremonial cap.
I guess we will just have to wait and see.

Via / Yahoo!

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1. ehilly ~ Wednesday, Aug 16 2006 | 21:52H:

I visited Cuba for 2 weeks in both 1999 and 2000. I am a political science teacher, interested in how governments/regimes and economies go thru massive change. What I saw on my two trips could be a catalog of vignettes that show Cubans 'hustling' to make hard currency in very creative ways. That personal, economic behavior, not political opinions (who should run the state) seemed to be the dominant energy there (although most Cubans do both: hustle, AND have political opinions).

I can't help but think that relatively wealthy South Florida Cubans will quickly win more rights to return once Castro has passed, and their money, flowing into Cuba will bring about rapid change. The 'hustling' will spread, with the greater supply of hard currency (it was growing rapidly when I was there). In an almost fast-forward version of China (one where the Cuban government will have far less power to control change) the economy will liberalize. There will be no way to silence political dissidents in that atmosphere, just as the ability of Chinese dissidents to be heard is growing as the info-tech sector of their society grows. Political reform.

It seems to me that things WILL change, and they will change quickly."Un Cubano inventa." That's what they say there. A Cuban finds a way. And I saw tremendous innovatation there to solve daily problems, mostly driven by the demand for strong currency -- a store of value that they could trust. THAT will be the force that brings rapid change when exiles return with far greater amounts of dollars. What do Cuban exiles reading this think?

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